The Reserve Bank held the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.75% on 28 October 2026, in a split 4–3 vote. Financial markets and most economists had expected a rise to 3%, after two increases since July.
The Monetary Policy Committee expects annual inflation to reach about 4.4% in the December quarter, mostly because of fuel prices. Members agreed that tighter policy is likely to be needed, so a rise is still possible at the December Monetary Policy Statement.
For borrowers, fixed mortgage rates follow wholesale (swap) rates, which already price in where markets expect the OCR to go. That's why fixed rates can move before the OCR does, in either direction. Floating rates tend to follow the OCR itself more closely.
The Reserve Bank's lending limits, as at October 2026: banks can lend up to 25% of new owner-occupier lending, and 10% of investor lending, to borrowers with smaller deposits, under limits eased on 1 December 2025. New builds are exempt. Debt-to-income limits are 6 times gross income for a home to live in and 7 times for investors.
Since 1 July 2026, the Financial Markets Authority has regulated consumer lending, taking over from the Commerce Commission. First Home Loan borrowers pay a mortgage insurance premium of 1.2% of the loan, for loans submitted since 1 July 2025.
If your fixed rate ends in the next few months, it's worth comparing refixing with your current lender against moving, and thinking about splitting the loan across terms rather than fixing it all at once. A refix reminder means you won't roll onto the floating rate by accident.